Posted on behalf of contributing industry analyst Bob O’Donnell, IDC Program VP, Clients and Displays
Recently, much has been written and spoken regarding the so-called "death" of the PC and emergence of the Post PC era. Indeed, it's become almost fashionable to write off PCs as "old news" and focus exclusively on the admittedly exciting world of tablets, smartphones and other mobile devices. A quick look at the facts, however, will demonstrate that PCs have a lot in common with Mark Twain as reports of their death "have been greatly exaggerated."
This year worldwide PC shipments will grow to a staggering 357 million units, generating nearly $258 billion. IDC’s current PC forecast shows this number growing to almost 390 million units and revenues of $271 billion in 2012. By 2015 we expect PC shipments to reach 535 million units and $333 billion on a worldwide basis.
So why all the alarms?
The simple fact is growth has slowed, particularly in the US, Western Europe and other developed regions, much of it due to macroeconomic issues. After years of huge double-digit growth, particularly for consumer-focused portable PCs, growth rates for PCs are now in single digits. In developing markets like China (now the largest PC market in the world), Brazil (currently number three and rapidly approaching US-level numbers) and others, however, PC growth continues at a solid double-digit pace, both for consumers and businesses; a fact that many casual industry observers overlook.
At the same time, the market for mobile devices has enjoyed fairly dramatic growth. This year, shipments of smartphones are expected to surpass that of PCs and grow at a faster rate.
But none of this can blunt the growing role that PCs continue to play for consumers and businesses. In the home, PCs have evolved from one-per-household shared devices (typically desktops) to one-per-person individual devices (typically notebooks). In the case of businesses, Windows PCs are at the very heart of all size organizations and the migration from Windows XP to Windows 7 continues to be an important factor driving that segment of the market forward, both now and into 2012.
As a result, I'd argue that we're actually in the PC Plus era—an age when people own and use PCs, plus other devices. The addition of smartphones, media tablets, eReaders and portable media players to the collection of smart connected devices simply provides more options for individuals to get access to their data. It's easy to forget the simple things, but large displays and full-sized keyboards are incredibly important characteristics that enable PCs to continue to play a critical role for consumers and businesses.
Today's reality is that people are purchasing and using multiple intelligent devices. In fact, according to an IDC survey of iPad owners in five countries (US, UK, Germany, France and Japan), they own an average of 4.8 smart connected devices per person. People are also spending more time online and spreading that time across the screens of their device collections.
But when it comes down to getting work done, schoolwork done, e-mails written and Facebook pages updated, the good ole' PC is still the go-to device (and in many cases, the only device) where all those tasks and more are being done.
If you’re interested in hearing more of my perspectives check out a recent conversation I had with Dell’s Tim Mattox, Vice President, Worldwide Enterprise Product Management:
Bob O'Donnell has had a lengthy, multi-faceted career in the computer and high-tech industry and currently serves as IDC’s Program VP, Clients and Displays. He is responsible for tracking the latest and most important hardware developments that impact PCs, notebooks, thin clients and other computing devices, as well as the ODM production of notebooks. He also leads IDC’s display research program, where they track both the sales and technology trends affecting the worldwide market for computer televisions, monitors, projectors and related technologies, as well as the market for large LCD panels and ODM production of monitors and TVs.
